Chip War and Upturn Timing

G. Dan Hutcheson

The Chip Insider®

Happenings, Comments, Questions & Answers: Japan and the Netherlands may join the U.S. in semiconductor equipment restrictions to China … an openly visible move to side with the U.S. would be a significant shift back to the old-world order.

Japan and the US-China Semiconductor War … Which side do you think Japan falls on the US-China Semiconductor War? … Japan’s economic dependency on a positive relation with China is arguably greater than that of the United States. But Japan also has major national security issues, for which it relies on a strong relationship with the United States… Japan will most likely side with ... Fears of a world united against it will drive China’s military strategy to be …

Upturn timing: Dan, when do you think the upturn will come? Second half of 2023? 2024? … The second half of 2023 is the most likely, given the double-known causes of the current slowdown being first, the reverberation from the COVID restructuring for a work-anywhere economy … the self-inflicted wounds by producing too much, which led to an inventory glut that was visible by July of 2022… It is the known unknowns that have people thinking about another pause that stretches upturn timing into 2024, with the shape of the cycle looking like an …

SEMI ISS Continued: I’ve been asked for months how to play the U.S. Chips Act and what the structure would be. Two speakers at SEMI ISS laid it beautifully: one is Laurie Locascio, the Under Secretary for Standards and Technology at the U.S. Department of Commerce and Director of NIST. She gave instructions for how to apply for an incentive. The second was Raj Jammy of MITRE ENGENUITY, who gave the best talk I’ve seen on what to expect with the governance and organizational structure of the NSTC, which will be a hub-and-spoke network laid out across the United States at various centers of excellence and in his view, possibly outside the U.S.

“A good plan, violently executed now is better than a perfect plan tomorrow” — General George S. Patton

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