It's cooling off but orders are still humming along

Andrea Lati

• Order activity for semiconductor equipment fell nearly three points in the third week of June, slipping below the 100-degree mark for the first time this year
• The recent declines are bringing the order activity down to earth; however, at 99 degrees it’s still hot and well above the growth-decline line
• Chipmakers, especially on the Memory side, are becoming more cautious about the outlook due to slowing consumer demand and rising levels of inventories
  • No impact on the equipment suppliers yet, where the biggest issues remain supply related
• There were some modest changes made to the forecasts in June as most of the data came in line with our expectations
  • The equipment forecast was lowered from 20% to 18% as persisting supply chain constraints continue to weigh on the near-term numbers
  • The IC forecast for 2022 remained largely unchanged at 16%, but the 2023 forecast got a 2-point haircut due to an increasing inventory correction risk in 2023
• TechInsights’ Chip Price Performance Index continued to warn
  • DRAM slid
  • NAND declined
  • MPUs slid
• Utilization levels remain elevated