China is Turning up the Heat in this Cold Market (September Update)

Shereen Vaux

Order activity for semiconductor equipment held at 54 °F as there was minimal movement in the market last week. There weren’t many changes to our forecasts this month as the data aligned with our expectations. China continues to hoard equipment, and we aren’t seeing any signs of this slowing down. Given the increases we see in China, this could result in overcapacity especially at the trailing edge; however, these tools aren’t being utilized yet. On the bright side, our semiconductor capex forecast for next year is muted. This, coupled with the pullback in spending this year, should allow demand to catch up with supply and capacity.