The Chip Insider®– Temperature Check

Temperature check at SIA Dinner and SEMI’s ITPC: “A very rowdy crowd” was how AMD’s Lisa Su described the SIA Awards Dinner attendees, based on what John Neuffer told her after arriving late to their table. And it was… It started to build at the reception in the foyer, reaching a feverous pitch once everyone had entered the Imperial Ballroom… in 1979. Jerry Sanders, then AMD’s colorful CEO, gave the keynote, in which he first proclaimed, “Semiconductors would be the crude oil of the 80s…” Cycles aside, we all knew … ‘that semiconductors would be the crude oil of the future.’ Certainly, semiconductors have assumed the critically important strategic role in this century that crude oil had in the early 20th century. Or as Lisa Su recently put it, “At the end of the day... The beauty of engineering is... It actually matters what you do.”

All of which brings us to last night… Broadcom’s Hock Tan presented this year’s Noyce Award to Dr. Mark Liu and Dr. C.C. Wei… given the current shortage of advanced foundry capacity, Hock Tan’s closing, “Mark… C.C. … Just give us more wafers …” received a boisterous laugh. The evening closed with a delightful on-stage conversation with Lisa, Mark, and C.C. discussing what has made TSMC so successful… Most notable was CC’s comment …“We have to make customers successful. This is our business.” Also … Mark’s comments about … “production in the United States was made” while “TSMC couldn’t resolve "US national security concerns, they needed to be managed. That is why we invested in the US.” CC added “once you start a fab you cannot stop investing...” With regards to the cycle, CC voiced concerns that AI was overheated...

SEMI ITPC is the other November event that gives a temperature check for how heated or cold the industry is. It was boisterous as well. The most common sentiment I heard from suppliers could be summed up by the comment, “2026 is pretty much in the bag...”

Many believe AI cannot be a volume challenger to smartphones. But, Christophe Fouquet, President & CEO of ASML, challenged this view, stating that a single “Nvidia Blackwell system requires … wafers” and a “… wafers needed for a Blackwell Ultra…”

Speaking of 2030, semiconductor sales passed the $200B high-bar in the just-ended 3Q 2025. So, we are only 25% shy of reaching the $1T goal set for 2030…

"I've always been more interested in the future than in the past.” — Grace Hopper