The Chip Insider®– Intel: Why you Shouldn't Write it off
Author: G. Dan Hutcheson
Summary:
Most of the world seems to have written Intel off after its recent earnings call… So, why not address the counter-question: Why should you not write it off? The easy answer is that so many customers in the world want Intel to succeed as a counterbalance to TSMC. And suppliers… And governments… In other words, Intel is ‘too big to fail.’
The problem with all these is… they are just ‘wants.’ There is no existential need. I lived through this many years ago with the failures of … While they had tough competition, I saw failures due to each company’s ineptitude. The most important question to consider about Intel’s future is … Finance problems are easy to fix. Technology problems are not. When a company's core technology is past its due date, it is literally rotten to the core. Everything else is something in between.
In terms of technology position, Intel has almost delivered Pat Gelsinger’s July 2021 promise of 5 nodes in 4 years (4N5Y)… Understanding how Intel got into trouble requires going back and reviewing decisions made around the 2013 timeframe… when it had a 3-year lead over everyone and EUV was late. Those decisions would lead to a series of problems, which would not be turned until the storms of 2020…
Maxims: Never let the calendar take precedence over fundamental issue.
"Execution is Everything" – John Doerr
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