The Chip Insider®– Forecasting the Unforecastable

Forecasting the Unforecastable: As you know, we are essentially in unforecastable times due to the unprecedented dynamic of tariffs. Tariffs are a black swan, reversing 9 decades of ever-freer trade that started with the repeal of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1934. When it comes to forecasting, the general expectation is that most semiconductor-related companies will avoid offering forecasts, as has the Bank of Canada. When central banks won't forecast, it emphasizes how difficult the forecasting environment is.

Still, forecasting is essential if you're running a business and for life in general… When it comes to running a business, TechInsights calls the range of possible outcomes an OFR, or Operational Flexibility Requirement. On average, the semiconductor market has grown at just over 10% since 2014, with a slightly greater than 10% standard deviation. The semiconductor equipment market has grown … So a good rule of thumb … The forecasting problem tariffs pose is that they affect timing as well as both supply and demand… Tariff Positives: tariffs generally lead to higher prices… Tariff Negatives: Higher prices lead to lower unit volumes… Semiconductor Equipment… Semiconductors … Electronics… Macroeconomy…

Maxims: Dan's Guide to Forecasting.

“Forecasting is difficult… Especially when it's about the future” – Yogi Berra