Semiconductor Emissions Are Exploding: What the Forecast Says About AI, 3D NAND, and the Global Grid

The global race for artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and advanced connectivity is fueling an unprecedented demand for semiconductors. This growth is fantastic for technology, but it comes with a significant environmental bill. Our newly released Global Semiconductor Carbon Emissions Forecast, 2026-2030, reveals a stark trend: the industry’s carbon footprint is accelerating rapidly, pushing boundaries we can no longer ignore.

We project that annual carbon equivalents from chip fabrication will surge from approximately 190 million metric tons in 2026 to a staggering 247 million MT by 2030. That’s a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4%—a signal that advanced technology is the primary driver of the increase.

Logic Leads, but 3D NAND is the Hotspot

When you look at which chips are driving these numbers, two major segments stand out. Logic chips, the brains behind AI and CPUs, consistently account for the largest share of emissions, comprising 45%–47% of the total throughout the forecast period. This is a direct consequence of the immense complexity involved in manufacturing sub-5nm nodes.

However, the analysis pinpoints a major carbon intensity hotspot in the Memory segment: 3D NAND. Even though it makes up less than half of the total memory wafer volume, 3D NAND drives a disproportionate share of Memory emissions. Why? Its manufacturing process—involving deep, high-aspect-ratio etching and hundreds of layers—is exceptionally complex and consumes substantially more energy and materials than comparable DRAM or Logic generations. On average, 3D NAND is the most carbon-intensive wafer to produce.

The Geography of Carbon Matters

The forecast, which includes Scope 1, Scope 2 (location-based electricity), and Scope 3 (materials) emissions, makes one thing abundantly clear: location matters.

The regions with the largest installed fab capacity—such as Taiwan, China, and South Korea—also rely on high-carbon electricity grids. This concentration of manufacturing in high-carbon regions amplifies the sector’s footprint, as electricity use drives the majority of the total emissions (DRAM is roughly 50% Scope 2, for instance).

Here is where a hopeful nuance emerges: after 2027, the increasing volume of leading-edge production in North America and Europe is expected to provide a partial offset. Because these regions generally have lower-carbon electricity infrastructure, the shift can temper some of the carbon intensity associated with highly complex, advanced nodes. This regional dynamic is a crucial lever for global emissions management.

The Rising Cost of Complexity

The data confirms that the carbon intensity per wafer is rising, up 2% since 2021. While legacy nodes still contribute a significant portion of emissions due to sheer volume, the overall trend is dictated by advanced processes.

The path to 247 million MT by 2030 is set. But by understanding the specific drivers—the intensity of 3D NAND, the volume of Logic, and the pivotal role of regional electricity grids—the industry can prioritize interventions where they will have the greatest impact.

Ready to dive deeper into the data and see the full node-by-node and regional breakdown? Read the full Global Semiconductor Carbon Emissions Forecast, 2026-2030 today to inform your sustainability strategy.