Insight: AI Chip Exports to China Resume, Big Win for NVIDIA

The US eases AI chip export rules to China, signaling a shift that could boost U.S. firms and global AI markets. AI accelerators may hit $500B by 2028.

The US appears to have adopted a more flexible stance on AI chip exports to China, indicating a strategic shift that could greatly benefit the AI semiconductor market. After the Biden administration enforced strict export controls, the Trump administration reversed the policy without providing a replacement, leading AMD and NVIDIA to issue profit warnings and write-offs. The US seems to have changed course again and will soon allow companies to resume exports to China. We expect this will lower uncertainties and drive growth, with AI accelerators projected to reach $500 billion by 2028. The US's strategic flexibility will not only strengthen its leadership in AI but also encourage global adoption, creating a win-win situation for both American tech giants and international markets. However, don't expect China to remain passive. Trade negotiations will continue as the China-for-China ecosystem keeps expanding.