Global Smartphone Shipments Forecast by Vendor by Region by Quarter: June 2025 Version

See the latest forecast update—TechInsights lowers 2025–2026 global smartphone shipment outlook amid trade tensions and weak subsidies.

TechInsights has tweaked down 2025 and 2026 global smartphone shipment forecast number in this version, amid the mounting uncertainties around the trade war and triff volatility, as well as the weaker-than-expected smartphone subsidy effect in China market. We expect global smartphone shipments will decline 1% YoY in 2025, and the market would remain flat annually in 2026, under the best scenario. Apple will surpass Samsung being the largest smartphone vendor in 2025. However, Samsung expects to catch up and tie with Apple in 2026.