The Chip Insider®–TSMC-Intel Tie-up Endgame: A Strategic Forecast
Author: G. Dan Hutcheson
Analyze the potential impact of a TSMC-Intel tie-up, exploring the stakes for key players, from Intel and TSMC to global political dynamics.
A strategic forecast… let’s assume the deal goes through and look at what’s in it for the various stakeholders – visible and less visible, and game the endgame for a strategic forecast. The visible stakeholders are Intel, TSMC, and the Trump Administration. The less visible stakeholders are Taiwan, the United States, and the People's Republic of China. As I will show, all six have win-or-lose stakes in the game.
What’s in it for Intel: Frank Yeary… Pulling it off would get Intel’s board out of the shadow of what is arguably the worst series of blunders in the history of the semiconductor industry…
What’s in it for the Trump Administration: On the surface, it’s an obvious political win… It will be a very visible demonstration of how he’s not only revamping the government, but also the economy.
What’s in it for TSMC: On the surface, there’s little in it for TSMC...
What’s in it for Taiwan: Taiwan has two issues at stake in this deal: Keeping its Silicon Shield up and avoiding tariffs. Ironically, Taiwan’s Silicon Shield, or lack thereof, could be its biggest bargaining chip… Taiwan could lower it and align with China… US-Russia-Ukraine today as an analog for a US-China-Taiwan future…
What’s in it for the United States: It will hurt America's National Security interests should Intel’s ability to develop leading-edge processes not be kept strong.
What’s in it for the PRC: A setback for the US in losing Intel’s ability to develop leading-edge processes in Oregon and advanced packaging in Arizona would be a big win for the PRC…
A strategic forecast: Gaming the endgame …Should the TSMC-Intel tie-up become a reality, I predict that Intel's massive process R&D capabilities will be hollowed out and eventually shut down… Moreover, the more Intel’s capability is diminished over the long term, the greater the risk of a kinetic conflict with China in the Taiwan Strait… is it worth the risk?
“What you do in life echoes in eternity" — From the Movie “The Gladiator”
