The Chip Insider®– Strategic Forecast for 2024
Author: G. Dan Hutcheson
Summary:
Now that 2023 is over, it’s clear most got it wrong in what was a year of odd contradictions. When it came to the macro picture, most economists predicted we were headed into a downturn and consumers – according to surveys – thought we were in one. Instead, macroeconomic growth was strong. It wasn’t even a soft landing. It turned out not to matter what consumers thought … What about the mega-dip that many feared? Last year at this time, things looked dark with chip inventories through the roof and fears of government spending causing a glut. The bad simply didn’t happen.
Moore’s Law: dead AND alive? At the start of 2023, general sentiment had it that Moore’s Law was dying, pitting Pat Gelsinger against Jensen Huang… As the year closed with IEDM, Moore’s Law looked alive, with Jensen’s own charts showing he has a Secret Santa that’s packing ever-more transistors into GPUs… Geopolitical..
2024: What’s worrisome about the coming year is there is such a wide divergence of forecasts... Still, the worry wall to climb is that this lack of consensus is the result of far higher levels of uncertainty and hence a greater chance for the unexpected to change things. 2024 is not a year to show caution to the wind like we all did in 2021. And remember where that got us... If we play our cards right, growth in 2024 should extend into 2025.
AI will continue to be the big driver… Geopolitical: My sense is that geopolitical tensions will ease this year, because … For semiconductors, one thing is certain: the fires driving its re-globalization beyond Taiwan and South Korea will continue. I also expect these fires to break out of the leading edge and head towards…
Surprises: As for my prediction of surprises with a better-than-even chance of occurring between now and the end of the year: It will not be the year of the Metaverse…
“Forecasting is difficult… Especially when it's about the future” – Yogi Berra
